
The new Apple iPhone is scheduled to debut in June 2007, 30 years to the month after the Apple II, the world's first popular PC, appeared. As if it were a comet we have been speculating about and tracking over the past two years, the iPhone is no surprise, but we still can't keep our eyes off it. Like the Apple II, the iPhone will arrive with an impact that affects several domains?financial, technical, and cultural. Although felt immediately, understanding its full impact will take years.
Strategically, the iPhone will help Apple protect and expand its base of iPod devices into the domain of smart phones and converging devices. On the surface, the iPhone is an iPod with an integrated phone. There is, of course, much more.
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From a user perspective, the device incorporates a 2-megapixel camera, a Web browser, and iTunes. All the device's communications, computing, and graphics require serious computing horsepower and batteries. The iPhone will have four ARM processors, and Apple claims that battery life will be around five hours for talking, watching videos, and Web browsing on the Internet.
The iPhone represents mature technology that several other mobile phones or PDAs have demonstrated. What makes it different is that the device's aesthetic appeal hides much of its complexity, as Figure 1 shows. Moreover, the design integrates well with the vertical market Apple has created for TV, music, and movies. The phone syncs with iTunes just like an iPod, and its software works like (and with) the Mac's.
The iPhone promises to build on Apple's coolness legacy. Moreover, it could quickly become known as the elite experience in a world that already has 10 billion mobile phones. Apple's initial 10 million iPhones will represent barely a tenth of one percent of the world's cell phone market. Early adopters will thus be special, members of the tech elite.
If the iPhone meets expectations, it could create a new, unpredictable dynamic in the mobile phone marketplace. Already, for example, Sprint reduced the cost of its music downloads in March from $2.50 a song to 99 cents.
Returning to the comet analogy, the iPhone could have as much of a disruptive effect on the existing cell phone market as the dinosaur-killing comet's impact did 65 million years ago. Or, as with the Apple II in 1977, it could be the beginning of a new age for devices we haven't named yet.











